Speaker: Nicola Taconet, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), France
Moderator: Laurent Drouet, RFF‐CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy
What is the prospect for future inequality between countries under climate change? In addition to socioeconomic evolution regarding demography, education, and technology progress, climate change will affect future inequality. Climate damage hit disproportionately poorest countries, while mitigation costs will be unevenly distributed. Analysis of scenarios accounting for these effects of climate change under different emission pathways reveals that climate impacts will reverse observed declining inequality trend under the strongest damage estimates. Even under low damage estimates, this situation occurs in some scenarios. Thus, mitigation of climate change can be key to limiting future inequality, provided that mitigation costs do not fall on the poorest countries.